總是有人喜歡和機率對賭。
總是有人覺得自己不會是那千分之一、萬分之一、百萬分之一或甚至是幾億分之一的那個碰上意外、染上絕症、的衰人或倒楣鬼。但是在此同時，同一個人又很詭異的很有信心的覺得自己一定是那千分之一、萬分之一、百萬分之一或甚至是幾億分之一的那個碰上好事、發一筆橫財的幸運兒。
所以，同一個人會覺得自己絕對沒那麼倒楣會成為那千分之一萬分之一百萬分之一甚至幾億分之一的衰王，又覺得自己一定是鐵定會成為那千分之一萬分之一百萬分之一甚至幾億分之一的幸運兒。倒楣？走運？真的只是機率？！
機率，對人的行為沒有意見，對人的心態沒有意見，對人的境遇也沒有意見。
機率，只是冷冰冰的將世事一刀切為兩個部分："中"與"不中"，分別以這兩個部分在全體之中所佔的大小互為比較，以一個單純的數字呈現出兩者所佔的區塊大小。其實，對於一個單純的個體...就是個人而言，機率，只是在事件尚未發生之時，看起來似乎具有某種象徵性的意義，也似乎可以用來做為決策的參考指標，甚至還可以當成評判他人運氣福氣好或不好的一個旁證...可是其實在自己身上，事件一旦發生，就是百分之百，什麼幾千幾萬幾百萬甚至幾億分之一，那些在事件發生的當下，早已成為過眼雲煙...。
中了，機率就是百分之百。
沒中，機率也是百分之百。
只有在還不知道中不中之前，機率才像在腳底搔癢的羽毛一般有著令人全身發癢的意義。事件發生之後，人不是百分之百的幸，就是百分之百的不幸...幸與不幸，其實跟機率沒啥太大的關係。所以，請在決策之際，別太高估了自己的幸運，或者過於低估了自己的衰運，而忽略了人生真正的幸與不幸，其實都只在自己的心念之間，有時走衰運，可能是一種幸運；而中大獎，反而可能是一種衰運。
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Thursday, November 05, 2009
專家？狗？
在這個五濁惡世，許多狗穿起了正式服裝，變成了口沫橫飛的專家...不過那些從他們嘴角噴出的口水與唾沫，以及他們遇事遇人就狂吠的態度，令人很確定隱藏在這些專家背後的狗背景。而專家，不知怎麼著，卻也開始學著狗流口水，汪汪汪吠叫個不停，趴著上身在垃圾桶裡找尋著批評與研究的材料...
記得以前唸書時，曾經讀到"專家不過就是訓練有素的狗"這句話。說這句話的愛因斯坦，可能不會知道他鋪陳了那麼多狗與專家之間的區別，卻只被後人取用了其中一句（讓我們熟知此名句的人就是陳之藩）...不，應該說是半句而已。
被引用的段落是這麼寫的："...It is essential that the student acquire an understanding of and a lively feeling for values. He must acquire a vivid sense of the beautiful and of the morally good. Otherwise he - with his specialized knowledge - more closely resembles a well-trained dog than a harmoniously developed person."翻譯成中文如下：讓學生獲得對各種價值的理解和感受是很重要的，他必須能真切地感受到美麗與道德的良善，否則他的專業知識只是使他更像一隻受過良好訓練的狗，而不是一個和諧發展的人（引自http://reffaq.ncl.edu.tw/hypage.cgi?HYPAGE=faq_detail.htm&idx=1797）。
專家與狗之間的差異，雖然有待專業研究來判定，不過愛因斯坦本意想告訴我們的是，一個人在具有專業知識之外，也不能忽略人文素養與個人修養。不會待人接物，EQ低下，人格偏差...就算學業或專業極度優秀，也不可能成為一個對人類社會有多大貢獻的人...雖然愛因斯坦的原文是在討論教育，不過仔細閱讀下來，會發現目前社會上有許多專家，正是落入他所敘述的那種...缺乏人文素養與個人修養的不和諧發展的人...於是專家，又逐漸趨近於訓練有素的狗的習性，專家與訓練有素的狗，界線再度又模糊了起來...。
唉...專家吵，狗亂吠，這樣的社會，到底在等待哪一個救世主的降生啊？！
p.s. 愛因斯坦的原文如下：
”It is not enough to teach a man a specialty. Through it he may become a kind of useful machine but not a harmoniously developed personality. It is essential that the student acquire an understanding of and a lively feeling for values. He must acquire a vivid sense of the beautiful and of the morally good. Otherwise he - with his specialized knowledge - more closely resembles a well-trained dog than a harmoniously developed person. He must learn to understand the motives of human beings, their illusions, and their sufferings in order to acquire a proper relationship to individual fellow-men and to the community.
These precious things are conveyed to the younger generation through personal contact with those who teach, no - or at least not in the main - through textbooks. It is this that primarily constitutes and preserves culture. This is what I have in mind when I recommend the ”humanities” as important, not just dry specialized knowledge in the fields of history and philosophy.
Overemphasis on the competitive system and premature specialization on the ground of immediate usefulness kill the spirit on which all cultural life depends, specialized knowledge included.
It is vital to a valuable education that independent critical thinking be developed in the young human being, a development that is greatly jeopardized by overburdening him with too much and with too varied subjects (point system). Over-burdening necessarily leads to superficiality. Teaching should be such that what is offered is perceived as a valuable gift and not as a hard duty.”
記得以前唸書時，曾經讀到"專家不過就是訓練有素的狗"這句話。說這句話的愛因斯坦，可能不會知道他鋪陳了那麼多狗與專家之間的區別，卻只被後人取用了其中一句（讓我們熟知此名句的人就是陳之藩）...不，應該說是半句而已。
被引用的段落是這麼寫的："...It is essential that the student acquire an understanding of and a lively feeling for values. He must acquire a vivid sense of the beautiful and of the morally good. Otherwise he - with his specialized knowledge - more closely resembles a well-trained dog than a harmoniously developed person."翻譯成中文如下：讓學生獲得對各種價值的理解和感受是很重要的，他必須能真切地感受到美麗與道德的良善，否則他的專業知識只是使他更像一隻受過良好訓練的狗，而不是一個和諧發展的人（引自http://reffaq.ncl.edu.tw/hypage.cgi?HYPAGE=faq_detail.htm&idx=1797）。
專家與狗之間的差異，雖然有待專業研究來判定，不過愛因斯坦本意想告訴我們的是，一個人在具有專業知識之外，也不能忽略人文素養與個人修養。不會待人接物，EQ低下，人格偏差...就算學業或專業極度優秀，也不可能成為一個對人類社會有多大貢獻的人...雖然愛因斯坦的原文是在討論教育，不過仔細閱讀下來，會發現目前社會上有許多專家，正是落入他所敘述的那種...缺乏人文素養與個人修養的不和諧發展的人...於是專家，又逐漸趨近於訓練有素的狗的習性，專家與訓練有素的狗，界線再度又模糊了起來...。
唉...專家吵，狗亂吠，這樣的社會，到底在等待哪一個救世主的降生啊？！
p.s. 愛因斯坦的原文如下：
”It is not enough to teach a man a specialty. Through it he may become a kind of useful machine but not a harmoniously developed personality. It is essential that the student acquire an understanding of and a lively feeling for values. He must acquire a vivid sense of the beautiful and of the morally good. Otherwise he - with his specialized knowledge - more closely resembles a well-trained dog than a harmoniously developed person. He must learn to understand the motives of human beings, their illusions, and their sufferings in order to acquire a proper relationship to individual fellow-men and to the community.
These precious things are conveyed to the younger generation through personal contact with those who teach, no - or at least not in the main - through textbooks. It is this that primarily constitutes and preserves culture. This is what I have in mind when I recommend the ”humanities” as important, not just dry specialized knowledge in the fields of history and philosophy.
Overemphasis on the competitive system and premature specialization on the ground of immediate usefulness kill the spirit on which all cultural life depends, specialized knowledge included.
It is vital to a valuable education that independent critical thinking be developed in the young human being, a development that is greatly jeopardized by overburdening him with too much and with too varied subjects (point system). Over-burdening necessarily leads to superficiality. Teaching should be such that what is offered is perceived as a valuable gift and not as a hard duty.”
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